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Which metals will gain most from a green energy revolution?

15 January 2020, Brandenburg, Sieversdorf: Red position lights shine on wind turbines in the "Odervorland" wind farm in the Oder-Spree district. Photo: Patrick Pleul/dpa-Zentralbild/ZB (Photo by Patrick Pleul/picture alliance via Getty Images)If the world is serious about reducing global warming, it’s going to need a lot of minerals and metals.

 

More than three billion tonnes will be required by 2050 to deploy sufficient wind, solar and geothermal power, as well as energy storage, to have a chance of limiting warming to 2 degrees Celsius by 2100.

 

That’s according to the World Bank, which spells out the implications of hitting the base target of the Paris Agreement on climate change.

 

It says the report is intended to provide policy makers, mineral producers, renewable energy developers, climate negotiators and civil society organizations with a data-driven understanding of how the shift to a cleaner energy system could impact mineral demand.

 

The report is also, unintentionally, a long-range road map for metals bulls looking to ride the green energy revolution.

 

Unsurprisingly, graphite, lithium and cobalt are stand-outs with the Bank forecasting potential demand increases of up to 500% from 2018 global production levels.

 

But the real long-term winners will be more conventional metals such as copper and aluminum.

 

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